8 Examples of the Weaknesses of the Argument from Silence

A common argument against the reliability of the New Testament is the argument from silence, where the omission of a seemingly important event, character, or other detail is taken as evidence against its historicity. To take one example, Paul never mentions the virgin birth. This has been used by skeptics as evidence that he didn't believe it. [1]

In this post I will attempt to show, primarily by way of example, that the argument from silence is a weak form of historiography and ought to be rejected. I will do this by exploring several cases in secular history where a seemingly important piece of information is omitted from one or more sources, but where the information in question is nevertheless true, and, in some cases, likely to be known by the author. This will aid in adjusting our intuitions about what information an ancient author is likely to mention and thereby prompt a reevaluation of how much confidence is placed in the argument from silence.

For many of the examples here I am indebted to Dr. Timothy McGrew, whose paper on the argument from silence I would recommend to those who want to dig deeper on this subject [2]. In fact, several of my examples here are merely a layman-oriented repackaging of his own research, though I have supplied his citations with some of my own and have added details where I deemed it prudent.

With that said, here are eight (or so) examples of the the weaknesses of the argument from silence.

The expulsion of the Jews under Claudius

There are no surviving writings from Josephus or Philo, both historians writing in the first century, detailing the expulsion of the Jews from Rome under the emperor Claudius, around AD 50. However, this is widely accepted to have occurred, given the references to it in the writings of Suetonius (Life of Claudius 25.4) and the book of Acts (18.2). 

While the fifth-century Christian writer Paulus Orosius (History 7.6.15-16) [3] claims that Josephus mentions it, the legitimacy of this reference is disputed. Among the scholars who deem the citation inauthentic, some argue that Orosius fabricated this reference entirely for polemical reasons, others argue that he confused Josephus with a different author. The complexities of this debate won't be explicated here. The relevant point is that if Orosius hadn't made a passing reference to Josephus, it would appear as if Josephus never recorded the expulsion of the Jews, and his silence would be evidentially trivial.

So why did Josephus and Philo omit mention of this? There is no way of knowing. Perhaps they didn't deem it important enough, or perhaps they forgot, or perhaps it was some other reason entirely. But their failure to mention it is only very trivial evidence that the event in question didn't happen.

Greek historians and Rome

The ancient Greek historians Herodotus and Thucydides make no mention of Rome or the Roman empire. Josephus notes this: 

"the city of Rome, that hath this long time been possessed of so much power, and hath performed such great actions in war, is yet never mentioned by Herodotus, nor by Thucydides, nor by any one of their contemporaries; and it was very late, and with great difficulty, that the Romans became known to the Greeks." [4]

Both wrote in the 400s BC, so it may be objected that Rome was not relevant enough to be mentioned. McGrew responds:

"[T]he Republic was already established by the beginning of the fifth century BC, and the volatile military situation in the Italian peninsula might have been expected to draw at least some notice from contemporary historians." [5]

While caution is warranted and the omission could be due to simple ignorance, this serves as another example of the weaknesses of the argument from silence.

Thucydides and Socrates

Another example pertaining to Thucydides is his failure to mention Socrates, a great thought leader who existed contemporaneously with the historian. One might expect that Thucydides would reference Socrates at least once but no reference is to be found. It would be irrational, however, to conclude that Socrates must not have existed, as his existence is testified to by Plato, Xenophon, Aristotle, and Aristophanes.

The eruption of Vesuvius

Mount Vesuvius erupted in 79 AD and destroyed the cities of Herculaneum and Pompeii. The evidence for this is indisputable: over 1,500 dead bodies and thousands of artifacts are preserved for the public to view. However, in neither of his letters to the historian Tacitus, describing the eruption of Vesuvius, does Pliny the Younger mention the destruction of the cities. [6] Neither does Suetonius' account of the eruption recount their destruction, merely describing the eruption as "dreadful" and mentioning that some people lost their lives. [7]

Constantine's Biography

The church historian Eusebius wrote a biography of the emperor Constantine, but never mentions the death of his wife, Fausta, or the death of his son, Crispus. It seems reasonable to expect that a biography would include the deaths of close relatives. Tim McGrew comments, 

"Here, at least, we may hazard a guess as to a motive for the omission; it would be difficult for a Christian writer to rationalize either the murders or the methods used. But if we were not informed in advance of the omission, we might well open the work with some curiosity as to how Eusebius would handle the whole affair. Hindsight alters our expectations." [8] 

The Bergen fire

The next example concerns the omission of a major fire from the annals of Bergen, Norway, around 1225-30. Several excavations revealed evidence of this fire, but the annals didn't record it, despite their documentation of other fires. An archaeologist and historian worked in collaboration to conclude that the fire did happen but the annals passed over it for unknown reasons (they speculated that it was because the fire served no special significance).

Here is an instance where despite the fact that the annals usually recorded major fires, they nevertheless passed over this particular fire. The direct archaeological evidence wins out over the lack of historiographical evidence and the argument from silence fails again.

Marco Polo and the Great Wall of China

Marco Polo (1254-1324) never mentions the Great Wall of China, even though much of the wall had been built during his travels. A caveat is that a small minority of historians doubt that Marco Polo ever went to China, in part due to this omission. However, there is a wealth of evidence that Marco Polo did travel to China; this case can be made robustly from the numerous details he correctly recounts, such as Chinese tax policies and salt production. [9]

Later examples

Eventually, more methods of recording information were devised and more writings were preserved, so examples of the argument from silence declined in number. There are, nevertheless, some noteworthy examples from later years, such as Ulysses S. Grant's failure to mention the Emancipation Proclamation in his memoirs. Timothy McGrew also notes prominent contemporaries who didn't take note of each other, such as Francis Bacon and William Shakspeare, or John Milton and Jeremy Taylor. [10]

Conclusion

The examples above should suffice in showing that the argument from silence is a weak form of historiography and should be employed with caution. While it can carry evidential weight as part of a cumulative case, historians and biblical scholars who employ it should rethink their reliance on it.

Notes and References

[1] Ehrman, Bart. “Do Christians Have to Believe in the Virgin Birth?” The Bart Ehrman Blog, 20 Dec. 2020, https://ehrmanblog.org/do-christians-have-to-believe-in-the-virgin-birth/.

[2] McGrew, Timothy. The Argument from Silence. Acta Analytica 29, 215–228 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12136-013-0205-5

[3] While I cannot verify the authenticity of this link, it appears legitimate: https://sites.google.com/site/demontortoise2000/orosius_book7 

[4] https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.01.0216%3Abook%3D1%3Awhiston%20section%3D12

[5] McGrew, Timothy. The Argument from Silence.

[6] The text of the letters can be found here: http://www.pompeii.org.uk/s.php/tour-the-two-letters-written-by-pliny-the-elder-about-the-eruption-of-vesuvius-in-79-a-d-history-of-pompeii-en-238-s.htm

[7] https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Suetonius/12Caesars/Titus*.html

[8] McGrew, Timothy. The Argument from Silence.

[9] Vogel, Hans Ulrich. Marco Polo Was in China: New Evidence from Currencies, Salts and Revenues. BRILL, 2012. A copy of this book can be accessed for free here: https://books.google.com/books?id=Ydo_9TEmuVQC&pg=PA1#v=onepage&q&f=false 

[10] McGrew, Timothy. The Argument from Silence.